Your Adarsh™

Letz mint some ‘ka-ching’

*Why not get some Apple here?? Isn’t it clearly going to $180?

Is that the next biggest mistake in the trading world I am thinking of? Did I already forget what happened to GooGle post earnings, which by the way we played out excellent!!

So why am I thinking of getting some apple here? Is it just because somebody said it’s going to $200? No not just that. Though, I have my small core position built in Apple, I did not want to recommend it to people to buy after 60% appreciation in the last 3 months. But, is it a credible statement to think a stock won’t appreciate more coz it already is up 60% in the last three months? naaaaaa..

So, what do I base my statement of getting some Apples here?

Look a the future. What’s APPLE getting for its innovativeness?

I am not going to mention all the factors that have already been mentioned by many people/analysts like the bucks APPLE gets every month on every Iphone, or the number of iphones APPLE conservatively expects to sell, aaaahhh u all know that. Don’t you?

I’ll just say the numbers AAPL puts out that they want to achieve will obviously be conservative. That’s what keeps it a suspense for their earnings report to be released. But don’t you remember when lately AT&T reportedly sold all the iphones?

Ok lets think it this way,

What if AAPL falls below the expectations with the iphone sales? Do you really have in mind that APPL issued Q2 guidance below analysts estimates??? Don’t you remember what happened in 2004 DEC when they fell below expectations? What happened next was analysts decreased the numbers, and then AAPL took off on surprise earnings!!! Check the history out for what will happen if we miss the expectations! It won’t even be as hard as it was on Google, coz APPL’s future, at least for the coming years , based on the news released out till now is damn rosy. What if we really get the low price smaller version of IPhone as planned by 4th quarter this year as reported by JP Morgan!!!. I personally was not impressed that they did not save that news for the earnings report. I personally would have appreciated, if that news was released during the earnings call, to see a pop as when the iphone was show cased in the earnings release this January.

Having said everything, I want to confess that I wanted to buy it on Friday, coz I knew it’ld be under a lot of pressure on the options expirations. I had my limit order at $140, but looks like it was there only for a nano second and my order did not get filled 😦

I don’t want you to chase, I’m damn sure we won’t see a RED day before the earnings and a good jump up on the earnings report with good expectations on the future. I want you to be in the boat as soon as possible. And as I opine it will just go up, I want you not to wait till the earnings day.

I am changing my limit order to 141

May be you are thinking isn’t it a risky play. I look at the upside/downside ratio before posting recos. Upside is atleast a pop to $180. Downside is a drop down to $130, which is not at all realistic after the GOOG trade.Why? Because, most people will now step back from trading APPL after that jolt at GOOG. That eliminates most traders.Most holders would be longs on the boat, who will by the way invite a lot of momentum players on to the boat after the earnings release…. or at least during the earnings call riding the price higher. To increase that $180 target I want Thain to say something positive about the other sales with macs, ipods and music tooo.

The mac books, ipods, iphones, what’s next?? That speculations should not be spoiled and we run higher and higher.

Hope this helps, don’t forget about my limit at $143. I know I’ll get most offlines on this one saying I’m wrong again, as I got with GOOG, the other day!!

Your Adarsh

PS: If you leave an offline on meebo to me, pls leave your email or at least your meebo id, so that I can reply. If you just post your question there, I won’t be able to track you down, coz you are there on a guest ID.

Thanks,

Adarsh.

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July 22, 2007 - Posted by | Blogroll, Future Buys

4 Comments »

  1. Good Job with the limit order Adarsh … You now have what you wished for!

    Comment by Srini | July 24, 2007 | Reply

  2. yya, but may be I’ld have gotten it a little bit lower 😦 may be $2… hehehe LOL
    Too greedy…wanting to get expertise in calling a bottom hehehe Just kidding…very happy to get in to the boat .Not concerned even if it drops a little more on the earnings. Only have a 50% of the number of shares Iwanted to own. Will load up on any buy back.
    Analysts talking about stock volatility makes me mad. This think cannot go below $130 – $135 range.
    I am writing it here in print.
    Hope this boosts confidence.

    Comment by Adarsh | July 24, 2007 | Reply

  3. I know … I bought some August 150 calls when AAPL was at 137.90. I am a believer as well but placing limit orders before market open is always risky.

    Comment by Srini | July 24, 2007 | Reply

  4. […] But there you go. We are at 150 now. More than 5% profit. But are you selling here?. Think twice. Here is the recommendation we made on Friday. APPL and BIDU killing ’shorts’. Think twice before you short good ones. That’s the lesson. […]

    Pingback by *Holy cow AAPL fuc*s ’shorts’ on the street « Your Adarsh | August 9, 2007 | Reply


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