Your Adarsh™

Letz mint some ‘ka-ching’

*What’s wrong with analysts? (HLYS)

 An article published today on Forbes reads ” Heelys Shares Rise on Upgrade
The stock was up yesterday after hours for the cancellation of the 4.5 million shares SEC filing, not after some analyst upgraded it today late morning!!!! What’s wrong with Forbes news reports?
         Moreover, I also am not impressed with what Analyst Sujata Shekar from CIBC had to say about the stock. She raised 2007 estimates to $1.79 from $1.49 and introduces a $32 target tag on the stock. That gives Heelys, a company growing very much more than 100%, more than 50% shorted, with a cheap P/E of around 17.5. woooooo What the ‘Analysis’?
        My studies and analysis tell my brain that when you upgrade a stock to ‘sector outperformer’ from a ‘sector performer’…you take into account for default that it’s P/E is going to improve not decrease!!!
        But according to ‘Analyst Sujata Shekar’, the stock which was trading on an average P/E of around 18.5, will OUTPERFORM the sector and go down in price valuation ending the year with a P/E of around 17.5.
Does something ring bells in your head? Isn’t something wrong here?
       

My take on Heelys :

       Taking a 25% growth in the next two quarters which every body knows is going to be easily beaten by the company, I value HLYS should be trading currently at 1.31 * 25 = $32.75 . ($1.31 earnings is average of all analysts)

Conversely, I opine they’ll make a minimum $1.8 which puts us at1.8 * 25 = $45, by the year end…and I add $4 for the short covering which should place the stock price around $50 by the year end.

This taking into consideration that they do not throw out new news screwing up the price creating volatility again. If they do that…I decrease the price target by $5. That should put us around $40-$49 a share by year end. A acquisition rumour or a merger news should boost the price then to newer never adventured levels. Heelys gives us the best Profit/Loss ratio to get them into your portfolio.

This is just by taking into consideration that they have a P/E of just 25.

We are increasing our long holding, once the price consolidates.

Comments appreciated.

Good Luck,

Youradu.

June 29, 2007 Posted by | Blogroll | 1 Comment

*Holy COW We got lucky with HEELYS again

Wow I love those Heelys. mmmuah.

We are on another trade spree here.

Bought two bunches on this dip.

One small bunch at $27.3

Another bigger bunch today at $ 24.8

We are up 10% after hours from today’s closing price. The shorts will have a hard time in the coming days. That squeeze should take us much higher. Hold on tight and thank Staffaroni.

Congrats and Good Luck.

June 28, 2007 Posted by | Blogroll, Holding, Profited, Short Term | 3 Comments

*Holy COW We got lucky with HEELYS again

Wow I love those Heelys. mmmuah.

We are on another trade spree here.

Bought two bunches on this dip.

One small bunch at $27.3

Another bigger bunch today at $ 24.8

We are up 10% after hours from today’s closing price. The shorts will have a hard time in the coming days. That squeeze should take us much higher. Hold on tight and thank Staffaroni.

Congrats and Good Luck.

June 28, 2007 Posted by | Blogroll | Leave a comment

*Crime is a BUY!!!!! (CXW)

How abt getting a prison play!!!!!

Corrections Corporation of America owns and operates privatized correctional and detention facilities. It also leases three correction facilities to third party’s.

The company is the fifth largest corrections system in the nation, behind only the federal government and three states.

It has a P/E of 34, and a PEG of 1.8. Its revenues were up over 52% year over year on a revenue gain of 11.5%.

Rated a BUY – ‘A’ at thestreet.com

Rated a Buy ‘1.2/5′ on analyst recomendations

It has 4 ‘Strong Buy’ ratings and 1 ‘Buy’ rating according to Bank of America ratings.

It had a great run. Nearly 90% increase in stock price in the last 12 months.

BUT, But, we have a split coming up this month ending. GO ahead guys get some before the split. We smell another big run up.

Never missed earnings and mostly beat the estimates by a good gap.

Private prison operator Corrections Corp. of America announced a two-for-one stock split for shareholders of record on June 29.

The split, payable July 6, will increase the number of shares outstanding to 123.7 million.

Wait for some consolidation in the market and get into this invisible bomb before 29th June. This will be one of our long term plays…No flipping here ) This is a growth play…not a spec.

Split was annouced when the price was $63.5. So, we can assume there was no big run up just on the speculation for the split. Looks lie safe here tooo. But just look to get in any where around 63-64.

Good Luck.

June 22, 2007 Posted by | Blogroll | Leave a comment

*Just talked to EVCC investor relations….

We wanted to talk to them on Monday evening if the results were not out by then. But one of our comment’s made us call them today. Thanks and appreciations to srx.
We just talked again to the investor relations at the Environmental Control Corporation.
The answers have been confident and positive again.

Two questions we asked :
1) When are the results of the test supposed to be announced?
Ans) Sir, The result of the test being done was supposed to be out by this week. It can be out any day now. We are waiting on to deliver everybody a good positive news.

2) Why is Michael Mugford, the director of both EVCC and MGM enterprises selling the stock? (We asked this questio long back, and got ‘Personal reasons’ as answer )
Ans) Michael and most other directors have been working with EVCC without any pay. And moreover the number of shares he has sold doesn’t even account up to be a considerable number considering his huge holding in the company. He has been selling for some confidential and personal reasons. Moreover, MGM has just bought a good bunch of the stock. That should indirectly mean he (being a founder of MGM ) has no negative issues with the test, nor the company. Hope I clarified your question.

Srx I hope that clarifies your question tooo. I don’t know whether the test outcome will be positive or negative, but the company sounds confident, positive and the industry is a booming one – remember based in environmental friendly California.

June 22, 2007 Posted by | Blogroll | Leave a comment

*No Profit or Loss untill u SELL

Alphabetically

EVCC has been flat since we recommended. Though we have to note we dropped down a few more cents. We gladly mention that we have backed up the truck for the coming news and hope you did the same.

GOOG our biggest dollar pick has dipped to 500 as we predicted and we bought a bunch at that price….though we are waiting for another small drop down to the 475 level before it takes off through the earnings report on Jul19th. Even if it doesn’t drop we’ll make it a point to the community to buy a bunch at a consolidated price. Seeing a huge run..Will probably trade if it bounces back at that 526 mark.

MS has given our short position a good run. We will get discover for our Long position soon and are very happy for the return we are getting DFS* is trading much better than expected …BOOYAH

TEXG …the biggest short term gainer. We have already flipped it twice since the recommendation. It makes a great trade. The latest news is that the debt acquisition by Westar will be done as soon as 10 days with a dividend payment (equal to the difference between 6.75 and the price of TEXG !!!!). We talked to somebody from the company and it looks to give us more. We are now more than a few grands. Congratulations for all those who rode with us.

More posts on TEXG:

https://youradu.wordpress.com/2007/06/08/

https://youradu.wordpress.com/2007/06/21/

NMX our much newer buy is still lurking at the same levels. Though the speculation of the sale is still not completely priced in. Bought at $138.

We also bought a few ICE on 18th June at $153.4, taking its aggressive growth and prospects into consideration. (Also the NYX NMX ICE speculation!) BUYING ON A CRAZY DAY PAYS.

HEELYS…yep it paid us off. We initiated another short term position on HEELYS yeesterday…. Looks like we were a bit too fast in the market….The 10% run down in a single day didn’t produce a positive next day. We are down 5% today…but hey That’ll be another buying opppurtunity as we bought only a very small position at 27 and change. Looking to get few more on a bit more drop. Our research tells it’ll bounce back once the addition of the 9 million shares pending completes…(increase in the floatation hmmmm)

Special Mention : trades at 26 and 25 were cancelled.
Good Luck.

June 22, 2007 Posted by | Blogroll | Leave a comment